GAO Reports Outlines National Security Risks Associate with Climate Change
In a recent report, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) outlined multiple ways in which climate change risks U.S. national security and reviews the Department of Defense’s (DOD) approach to address the issues. According to GAO, the risks are multifaceted: climate change and extreme weather-related events impact military installments and civil infrastructure; increase instability in foreign nations that affects U.S. security interests; and poses fiscal risks, with billion in estimated liabilities.
GAO provided an overview of actions taken since 2015 by DOD and civilian agencies to address climate-related risks. For example, in 2021, DOD issued a Climate Adaptation Plan that outlines a strategic framework and lines of effort to address climate vulnerabilities, such as developing resilient infrastructure and supply chains. GAO then outlined the greatest risk areas dealing with climate change and national security.
Specifically, GAO outlined climate effects on national security to include flooding, melting polar ice, migration trends, rising sea levels, catastrophic storms, and utilities.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported that flooding has caused more than $65 million in damages. Melting polar ice has been particularly damaging in Alaska, where rising sea levels increased erosion affecting radar sides critical for providing early warnings and communication. Rising sea levels have also negatively impacting the Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Virginia, which has experienced increased flooding and now annually averages three to five significant high tides and one hurricane.
GAO referenced a 2019 report on migration trends indicating climate change is driving migration. GAO notes that none of the three agencies primarily focused on migration issues; the Department of State (State), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and DOD; specifically focused on the nexus between increased weather events and migration. GAO noted this may cause blind spots in our responses to these issues.
Regarding catastrophic storms, GAO noted how Hurricane Michael devastated Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, shutting down most base operations for months and causing severe damage to operational infrastructure that supports training pilots for deployment to Air Force combat units. In addition to the immediate readiness impact, the Air Force estimated rebuilding the base would cost about $3.6 billion.
Finally, regarding utilities, GAO cited a previous report indicating that climate change could affect drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. “In 2021, we noted that climate change was expected to have far-reaching effects on the electricity grid, on which both DOD and civilian agencies depend. These effects include decreases in the production and efficiency of transmission of electricity and could cost billions of dollars each year.”
GAO offered five recommendations, which echo previously recommendation from the Office:
Resources to increase climate resilience: DOD should consider potential climate change effects on infrastructure when comparing military construction projects for approval and funding.
Climate change considerations in foreign basing: DOD should consider climate change adaptation when developing DOD’s position for future negotiations with host-nation governments on cost-sharing activities, when relevant or appropriate.
Considering future climate change in infrastructure designs: DOD should issue guidance on incorporating climate projections into facilities’ project designs.
Climate risks to supply chains: DOD should update its guidance related to acquisition and supply to incorporate the provisions of the DOD directive on climate change.
Climate resilience in domestic infrastructure: The Environmental Protection Agency’s Director of Water Security should identify and engage technical assistance providers to help utilities incorporate climate resilience, and the Department of Energy should establish a plan to guide efforts to develop tools for resilience planning.